New article examining technology-push and demand-pull policies in the solar photovoltaic industry in Germany published in Research Policy.
A new study by Alejandro Nuñez-Jimenez, Christof Knoeri, Prof. Joern Hoppmann, and Prof. Volker H. Hoffmann shows that a narrow focus on innovation and deployment can compromise industry and job creation.
Nuñez-Jimenez and colleagues use a ‘history-friendly’ agent-based model to explore 45 variations in the emphasis on technology-push and demand-pull in Germany’s policy mix for solar photovoltaics (PV). Policy mixes often combine technology-push and demand-pull instruments to foster innovation and deploy sustainable technologies. Germany’s historical policy mix had such a strong emphasis on demand-pull that a slight reduction would have still maintained staunch support for PV adoption. The article investigates if such a modification of Germany’s solar policy mix, changing the level of the solar feed-in tariff and public spending in solar research and development (R&D), would have led the country toward better policy outcomes.
The results show that important dimensions of sociotechnical change, such as industry and job creation, could be compromised if policy mixes are assessed only on innovation and diffusion outcomes. Policy mixes with different emphases on technology-push and demand-pull were shown to achieve similar deployment and innovation outcomes but vastly different industry and job creation results. The simulations show that more robust investment in public R&D could have helped German firms fend off competitors more effectively and, thus, retained more and for longer the jobs they had created.
The article’s conclusions corroborate previous studies on this topic: “The simulated interactions between technology-push and demand-pull instruments are in line with the previous literature and confirm the relevance of design features, such as the level of support, for understanding the outcomes of policy mixes.” However, Nuñez-Jimenez and colleagues argue that more studies are needed to investigate quantitatively the impact of alternative policy mix configurations on multiple policy objectives, such as reducing CO2 emissions, using public funds efficiently, and creating jobs.
Nuñez-Jimenez, A., Knoeri, C., Hoppmann, J., & Hoffmann, V. H. (2022). Beyond innovation and deployment: Modeling the impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies in Germany’s solar policy mix. Research Policy, 51(10), 104585. Downloadhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2022.104585