Review of model-based electricity system transition scenarios: An analysis for Switzerland, Germany, France, and Italy”, Thimet and Mavromatidis, 2022
The scenario-based investigation of the electricity system transition in different European countries clearly indicates solar and wind power to be the backbone of the transition. Still, a majority of the scenarios use current or outdated political climate targets and, hence, fail to provide insights on how to fully decarbonize the countries’ power sector.
In our literature review of modeling-based electricity system transition scenarios we investigated 171 scenarios discussing decarbonization pathways until 2050 covering the electricity systems of four different European countries. Our analysis focused on the projected electricity generation mixes of each case for 2030 and 2050 and the related key technologies in the mixes.
As our study shows, there are multiple ways to decarbonize the electricity systems, allowing policy and decision makers some freedom in how to support a swift transition. Our findings suggest, that both solar and wind power are crucial assets to decarbonize electricity systems. Additionally, natural gas as a power supply might additionally play an important role in the transition too, especially in countries that are phasing out a larger share of their current baseload. While the scenarios highlight several decarbonization pathways for each of the countries investigated, most scenarios fall short of representing current policies and climate targets, with the majority of the scenarios failing to reach a full decarbonization of the electricity system by 2050. We, thus, urge modelers and policy makers to work together closely to ensure the topicality and the usefulness of the modeling results since those results are used to shape the political discourse and decision-making process.